Impact of extreme heat in Europe on the ex cable market by stimulating electricity price increases

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A record-breaking heat wave swept through Europe in July, adding fuel to already fragile energy markets. London declared a state of "major event" on July 19 as the UK experienced its hottest day on record with temperatures exceeding 40C. Extreme heat exacerbates supply constraints and spurs short-term increases in electricity prices. A blackout crisis unfolded in Britain on July 20th, when National Grid saved south-east England from being plunged into darkness with a sky-high deal.

Some media reported that "the price of electricity in London has soared by 5,000%" and "the price of electricity for British utilities has been pushed to a record 9,724.54 pounds per megawatt hour", leading some netizens to estimate that the price of electricity in Britain is "79 yuan per watt hour". In fact, such expressions are vague; this "price" is not that "price".

According to The Paper.cn, this is the price of electricity purchased from Belgium by the UK's National Grid ESO in order to balance the power system in real-time. Between 12:00 and 13:00 on July 20, the highest price for cross-border electricity trading through the Nemo interconnect system of the Abi grid reached £9,724.54 / MWH, the highest price ever paid in the UK for imported electricity. The figure is about 55 times the average domestic electricity price for the whole of 2020, excluding tax, and 46 times the monthly average price in the UK day-ahead market for January-March this year.

A record price to buy the actual quantity is not much, according to foreign media reports, "eight houses a year only enough to meet the demand for electricity", but "it exposed the UK from overseas, especially in France, Belgium and the Netherlands import dependence on electricity", "in the 60 minutes or so, across the straits and purchasing power becomes the only option for balancing system". The Grid said the bidding took place in tight market conditions, with continental Europe also facing a power squeeze, pushing up overall prices.

The ex cable industry background

The ex cable industry background Wire and cable are widely used in all departments of the national economy, which is the fundamental guarantee for the regular operation of the modern economy and society. The development level of the wire and cable industry is also a symbol and epitome of a country's manufacturing level. Europe, America and Japan, such as developed countries, early industrialization at the end of the 20th century, have formed a mature cable industry chain . Contributed to most of the global ex cable capacity and demand at that time, still occupied an important position in the worldwide supply and marketing, leading the industry's development and monopolizing the global high-end market.

T he global demand of ex cable

According to the use scenario, the commonly used international ex cable divide into two categories indoors and outdoor. Outdoor ex cable due to wind and snow and environmental climate, working conditions, so its structure is more complex. Indoor ex cable working conditions are better and do not need a waterproof device. The cable core can directly connect with equipment. At present, indoor and outdoor ex cable for 10KV and below and outdoor cables sometimes use metal ex cable . According to data released by CRU, in 2021, global demand for metal ex cable (conductor weight) slowed significantly due to weak demand in China, with 19 million tons in 2021, up nearly 1% year on year. CRU reported in December 2022 that the global market for ex cable except in China would shrink by almost double digits in 2021 due to the impact of the pandemic.While market demand is recovering, early weakness will drive double-digit declines in multiple regions in 2021. As a result, the global need for insulated metal ex cable will shrink by about 5% -6% yearly. According to preliminary estimates, the global demand for metal-insulated wires and cables will fall to 17.86 million tons in 2022.

The global market of ex cable may be shrinking

The wire and cable market size are above 20 billion dollars as one of the most important manufacturing industries globally. From 2018 to 2021, the market size of the global wire and cable industry generally showed a trend of fluctuation. According to the data released by CRU, the market size of the international metal cable industry was $161 billion in 2019.Up slightly to $172 billion in 2020. The global market size fell slightly to $164 billion in 2021 due to falling demand in China. According to preliminary estimates, the global metal ex cable market in 2022 was affected by the epidemic, shrinking demand, with market size of $152 billion.

The market share of ex cable

In recent years, the economic growth of emerging countries and other Asian countries has been fast. The production focus of the world wire and cable production has shifted to Asia, which has driven the rapid development of the wire and cable industry in China, Vietnam, the Philippines and Egypt in the Middle East.According to the report released by the CRU, the outbreak in 2021 led to different effects on the world's other parts except for China. Combined with multiple market data, we summarize the overall development of the power cable industry in the global scope. Manifested by the rapid rise in Asia, the slight decline in America, and the unstable growth in Europe in recent years, which is greatly affected by economic and political factors. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for about 49% of global consumption, while Europe and the Americas account for 15% and 10%.

The Global Market Distribution of ex cable

After years of developing the wire and cable industry in developed countries, especially in the face of fluctuations in raw material prices, small enterprises gradually withdrew from the market, and the industrial concentration increased significantly. The top 10 American cable manufacturers (GM, Best, Corning, South, etc.) occupy about 70% of the market share. Seven Japanese cable enterprises (such as Wuhe, Sumitomo, Tengcang, Hitachi, Showa, etc.) account for more than 65% of the market share. Five French cable enterprises (Nexan, etc.) occupy the French market turnover, occupying more than 90% of the French market share. And China's entire wire and cable industry concentration is deficient. CR10 is 17.7%.

Emerging markets for ex cable

In 2021, the global ex cable market was in turmoil due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As the global economy recovers, China invests in new energy and infrastructure construction, and the global ex cable market is expected to recover in 2021. The global metal ex cable market will rebound to $180 billion in 2022.However, in the medium term, the global wire and cable industry will return to healthy growth, driven by government and private investment, after the end of COVID-19 but slowing slightly from the previous five years. Among them, represented by Africa and Southeast Asia, the rapid development of emerging market economies will accelerate their construction, infrastructure, utilities, and industrial development activities. These activities will provide the substantial upward potential for emerging market wire and cable demand. Emerging market demand growth will continue to support the recovery and growth of global demand.

According to the CRU forecast, after 2023, the international wire and cable industry market demand will recover to the level of 2019. The international wire and cable market is expected to expand at an annual growth rate of 5% from 2022 to 2026. The global ex cable industry market will reach $230 billion in 2026.

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